We, as Canadians, once viewed ourselves as a model of balanced growth and equitable prosperity. Today, we face a sobering reality: our productivity is stagnating, our innovation ecosystem is underpowered, and our economic future is increasingly uncertain. From the 1980s to today, our GDP per capita has slipped from 92% of the U.S. level to just 67%. We now rank below nearly every U.S. state in economic output per person.

There is no single cause for this decline, but several structural issues stand out. First, we suffer from chronic underinvestment. Our businesses invest far less in intellectual property and machinery compared to peers. In key sectors like ICT, retail, and manufacturing, U.S. firms outspend ours by factors of five to seven. This capital gap cripples productivity and hampers technological adoption.

Second, we have a scale problem. Outside of finance and energy, few Canadian firms grow large enough to compete globally. Too often, promising startups remain small or exit early through foreign acquisitions. The lack of domestic scale-up capital and market access contributes to this stagnation.
Third, the sectoral shift of our economy from high-productivity industries (like manufacturing and mining) to lower-productivity ones (like retail and construction) further drags down national output. Between 2000 and 2023, 99% of labour hour growth occurred in sectors with below-average productivity.

The implications are dire. If current trends continue, our households will earn $75,000 less per year than their U.S. counterparts by 2050. Over a 30-year horizon, that equates to a cumulative income gap of over $1.2 million per household. This is not just an economic challenge, but a social one. Rising inequality, declining trust in government, and increased reliance on food banks all signal the fraying of our social fabric.

Worse, most of us believe the next generation will be worse off. This pessimism is not unfounded. In an age where countries compete on innovation, agility, and talent, we risk becoming a cautionary tale—a wealthy nation complacent in its decline.